Bitcoin worth rally to $19.5K prompts analysts to discover the place BTC worth would possibly go subsequent

After Bitcoin (BTC) hit a yearly excessive of $19,501 on Jan. 13, the place is it headed subsequent?

Bitcoin is at the moment witnessing an uptick in bullish momentum after the positively perceived Client Value Index (CPI) report was adopted by a powerful rally throughout the crypto market. 

The latest rally in Bitcoin is creating elevated quantity ranges and better social engagement on whether or not the worth is in a breakout of fakeout mode.

Is the Bitcoin bear market over?

Whereas the market remains to be technically in a bear market in comparison with final week, investor sentiment is enhancing. In keeping with the Worry and Greed Index, a crypto-specific metric that measures sentiment utilizing 5 weighted sources, buyers’ emotions concerning the market hit a month-to-month excessive.

Bitcoin Worry and Greed index. Supply:

Bitcoin worth is now approaching the psychologically vital $20,000 degree and lots of analysts and merchants are issuing their ideas on the place BTC worth might head subsequent.

Let’s discover just a few of those views.

Bitcoin buying and selling volumes stay a priority

Bitcoin worth has but to recuperate from its pre-FTX ranges, however reached above $19,501 on Jan. 13 for the primary time since Nov. 8, 2022. Regardless of the power of the latest rally, some analysts imagine BTC worth wants to achieve $21,000 earlier than the present bullish development could be sustained.

In keeping with Glassnode evaluation,

“A renewed bullish development that began on January 1st drove bitcoin to the $18.6 – $18.9k degree, but a cross over to $19k is important to assert a brand new buying and selling channel round $19-$21k. Resistance is predicted round these ranges as bitcoin faces a mid-term downward development. If the worth fails to interrupt over the development line, we count on a retrace towards the $16-$17k space.”

BTC worth in comparison with quantity. Supply: Glassnode

The shortage of buying and selling quantity round $18,000 exhibits the weak point within the present on-chain and centralized trade (CEX) exercise. The most important volumes and general exercise appear to encompass the $16,000 degree, suggesting that could be a extra strong flooring than the present worth vary. With much less quantity surrounding ranges greater than $20,000, Bitcoin’s rally could possibly be capped at $20,000.

Is it only a bear market rally?

Bitcoin remains to be going through headwinds together with large trade layoffs in a tightening macro financial system, Gemini and Genesis authorized points and the potential institution of a US Home crypto-focused subcommittee.

As well as, Bitcoin’s relative power index (RSI) is at the moment displaying BTC as overbought. In keeping with RSI evaluation, a pointy downtrend might kind as the worth corrects.

Bitcoin RSI. Supply: TradingView

The macro markets are additionally at main resistance ranges. The US Greenback index (DXY) is at key assist which suggests threat belongings like Bitcoin might begin to see a sell-off if the index recovers. Bitcoin stays correlated to equities and the SPX mini futures index can be displaying indicators of a pullback.

TraderSZ explains under:

With Bitcoin buyers taking income as prompt by TraderSZ, it could be powerful for BTC to achieve greater ranges.

Historic evaluation factors to a brand new Bitcoin backside

Bitcoin is at the moment under its 200-week transferring common and in response to unbiased market analyst Rekt Capital, Bitcoin worth might have already hit its macro backside in response to historic information. Traditionally the “Loss of life Cross” degree exhibits a $23,500 backside.

Whereas merchants and technical evaluation are usually not identified for precisely predicting how lengthy a bull or bear market would possibly final, unbiased market analyst HornHairs cited historic information from 2015 to estimate how lengthy it should take for Bitcoin to hit a brand new all-time excessive.

The bull market from 2015 to 2017 lasted for 1064 days, matching with the 2018 to 2021 bull market which lasted the identical variety of days. If merchants match the bear market that adopted between 2017 to 2018 and 2021 to the present market, it will take 1,001 days till Bitcoin reaches a brand new all-time excessive.

Regardless of the present circumstances and the power of the present worth breakout, Bitcoin has confirmed many technical analysts improper up to now. Threat-averse merchants would possibly take into account retaining an eye fixed out for elevated buying and selling quantity at greater costs as an indicator of whether or not Bitcoin is lastly again in a bull market.